Quant Report

Walk-Forward Analysis (WFA) is a sequential validation method that optimises on in-sample data, then tests on unseen out-of-sample segments. Each "slice" produces performance on data the optimiser has never seen.

For ZenWave, WFA is not optional — it is the only accepted validation method. All published equity curves are stitched out-of-sample results.

Validation includes:

• AI-assisted verification of slicing boundaries
• Independent IS/OOS partitions with zero leakage
• Equity shape & structural consistency checks
• PF/DD stability and regime alignment
• Parameter drift analysis
• Dual-AI audit to reduce human bias and methodological blind spots

This creates institutional-grade validation rigor and minimizes the chance of overfitting or false robustness.

Four rolling slices spanning 2014 to 2025. Each row below shows the IS optimisation window and OOS validation period.

All four slices profitable on unseen data. A4 uses an extended IS window for validation only. Live ZenWave A uses the full-window 2014–2025 parameter set, confirmed stable by all A1–A4 slices.

Five rolling slices spanning July 2018 to 2025.

All five slices profitable OOS. B5 selected for production — best IS/OOS alignment, lowest fragility.

The ZenWave portfolio combines validated engines under a shared 0.50% total risk cap per trade cycle, split equally across active engines.

Combined, they produce a multi-horizon portfolio with reduced drawdown correlation and broader regime coverage.

Long-term USDJPY structural breakout engine (2014–2025). Fully automated, deterministic rules, fixed SL/TP.

Walk-Forward Findings (A1–A4)

• Fully profitable OOS behavior across all slices
• No catastrophic regime failures
• Stable profit factor
• Controlled drawdowns
• Natural parameter evolution
• Structural consistency across 12 years

AI-Assisted Validation Findings

• All slicing boundaries verified
• Zero data leakage
• IS/OOS behavior shows strong structural alignment
• Robustness ranks as exceptional within ZenWave's internal WFA benchmark library
• External AI auditor confirms methodology as statistically disciplined and institutionally sound

Robustness Conclusion: ZenWave A passes with high institutional confidence. Its full-window parameters form the long-term backbone of the ZenWave portfolio.

Watch WFA validation →

Medium-term USDJPY breakout engine (2018–2025). Adaptive structural logic, deterministic execution.

Walk-Forward Findings (B1–B5)

• B1 — Moderate stability
• B2 — Strong and balanced
• B3 — Weakest slice but profitable
• B4 — Excellent stability
• B5 — Best alignment with modern volatility

Parameter Behavior

• Controlled drift across slices
• No chaotic jumps
• Stable PF/DD characteristics

AI-Assisted Validation Findings

• Verified slicing integrity
• No overfitting detected
• Behavior matches expectations for a medium-horizon structural engine

Robustness Conclusion: ZenWave B passes WFA with stable OOS results. B5 is selected for live deployment due to regime alignment and low fragility.

Watch WFA validation →

Engine Status (as of 31 Dec 2025)

As of 31 Dec 2025, ZenWave A and B parameters are frozen. No parameter, risk, or logic changes are permitted outside a formal retirement or replacement decision.

The live deployment matches expectations set by the combined out-of-sample equity curves:

• Operates within the predicted drawdown bands
• Shows no signs of parameter decay or regime misalignment
• Continues to trade strictly within the WFA-validated framework